Page 73 - Šolsko polje, XXX, 2019, št. 5-6: Civic, citizenship and rhetorical education in a rapidly changing world, eds. Janja Žmavc and Plamen Mirazchiyski
P. 73
rožman, d. cortés ■ expected political participation and demogr aphic changes ...
al election was held. All analyses in this paper were done using R version
3.5.1 (R Core Team, 2018)
Results
Changes in expected political participation and the European
political crisis
The primary objective of this research paper is to explore the association
between the recent arrival of migrants into Europe and the expected po-
litical participation of young adults. In recent decades, immigration has
become a highly politicized topic in Europe; largely, this socio political
polarization has been intensified by the increasing challenge of manag-
ing forcibly displaced populations across EU country members. The case
of Brexit has been a major social and political transformation within the
continent ever since. In this light, with this paper we want to increase
our understanding on the correlates between young adults’ expected po-
litical participation and the political crisis associated with the arrival of
migrants fleeing violence and political persecution into Europe in recent
years.
To attain our objective, we look at the relationship between national
asylum application rates and the change in young adults’ political partic-
ipation expectations, which we define as the difference between the esti-
mated national proportion of eighth graders that certainly expect to vote,
as documented by ICCS 2009 and ICCS 2016. In Figure 1, we show a
visual representation of the strong and positive relationship between these
two variables (correlation coefficient is 0.60). On the x-axis, we plot the
national asylum application rate, while on the y-axis we plot the change
in young adult’s political participation expectations. This association sug-
gests that countries with higher asylum application rates from 2014 to
2018 have, on average, a larger percentage of young adults willing to vote
in national elections, relative to 2009. Interestingly, young adults in Ita-
ly, Latvia, Malta, and Slovenia show a decrease in their expected political
participation, while Scandinavian selected countries show the largest pos-
itive change in this variable.
In Figure 1 we also add the least-squares prediction line of regressing
the national asylum application rate on the change in young adult’s polit-
ical participation expectations, with a 95% confidence interval of the pre-
dicted values (gray-shaded area). The line predicts that an increase of 10 in
the national asylum application rate will be associated with an increase in
the change in young adults’ political participation expectation of about
0.6 percentage points (p-value = 0.05).
71
al election was held. All analyses in this paper were done using R version
3.5.1 (R Core Team, 2018)
Results
Changes in expected political participation and the European
political crisis
The primary objective of this research paper is to explore the association
between the recent arrival of migrants into Europe and the expected po-
litical participation of young adults. In recent decades, immigration has
become a highly politicized topic in Europe; largely, this socio political
polarization has been intensified by the increasing challenge of manag-
ing forcibly displaced populations across EU country members. The case
of Brexit has been a major social and political transformation within the
continent ever since. In this light, with this paper we want to increase
our understanding on the correlates between young adults’ expected po-
litical participation and the political crisis associated with the arrival of
migrants fleeing violence and political persecution into Europe in recent
years.
To attain our objective, we look at the relationship between national
asylum application rates and the change in young adults’ political partic-
ipation expectations, which we define as the difference between the esti-
mated national proportion of eighth graders that certainly expect to vote,
as documented by ICCS 2009 and ICCS 2016. In Figure 1, we show a
visual representation of the strong and positive relationship between these
two variables (correlation coefficient is 0.60). On the x-axis, we plot the
national asylum application rate, while on the y-axis we plot the change
in young adult’s political participation expectations. This association sug-
gests that countries with higher asylum application rates from 2014 to
2018 have, on average, a larger percentage of young adults willing to vote
in national elections, relative to 2009. Interestingly, young adults in Ita-
ly, Latvia, Malta, and Slovenia show a decrease in their expected political
participation, while Scandinavian selected countries show the largest pos-
itive change in this variable.
In Figure 1 we also add the least-squares prediction line of regressing
the national asylum application rate on the change in young adult’s polit-
ical participation expectations, with a 95% confidence interval of the pre-
dicted values (gray-shaded area). The line predicts that an increase of 10 in
the national asylum application rate will be associated with an increase in
the change in young adults’ political participation expectation of about
0.6 percentage points (p-value = 0.05).
71
