Page 78 - Šolsko polje, XXX, 2019, št. 5-6: Civic, citizenship and rhetorical education in a rapidly changing world, eds. Janja Žmavc and Plamen Mirazchiyski
P. 78
šolsko polje, letnik xxx, številka 5–6
asylum application rates (Figure 1) and the positive correlation between
young adults’ expected political participation and actual turnout (Figure
2 and Figure 3). A possible explanation for the relatively smaller correla-
tion is that the year in which national elections were held across the select-
ed countries varies. That is, the most proximate election to 2016 for three
countries was in 2015, possibly before the arrival of migrants into Europe;
while, for the other three countries the most proximate election to 2016
was in 2018 (two years after the arrival of migrants).
The black line presents the least-squares prediction line and the grey
shaded area shows a 95% confidence interval of the predicted values. The
biggest drop in voter turnout can be observed in Bulgaria, Italy and Slo-
venia where the difference in turnout between the two selected elections
was more than 10 percentage points. A positive trend in attending elec-
tions can be observed in Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Norway and Swe-
den, while the participation in elections did not change much during time
in Denmark and Malta. As expected, the estimated effect of asylum ap-
plication rates on the change in voter turnouts is not statistically signifi-
cant (p = 0.47).
Conclusions
Young adults play a crucial role in society as they represent the future so-
cial capital of a nation. This makes studying civic and political attitudes,
perceptions, and behaviour very relevant from an academic and policy
perspective. In this paper we have combined data from three data sourc-
es to study the relationship between changes in expected voting participa-
tion and recent immigration waves in Europe. We relied on data collect-
ed for ICCS study conducted in 2009 and 2016, a voter turnout database,
and country-level official statistics. We have found that the change in ex-
pected electoral participation of students is associated to the number of
asylum applications within a country. To gather some evidence that the
self-reported data from students reflect the society and societal changes
we examined the relationship between expected voting participation and
actual voter turnouts in the country. We have found a positive associa-
tion between these two variables. Our results point to the conclusion that
there is an association between the recent migration movements in Eu-
rope and the increased political participation in countries. This associa-
tion is reflected in students and their expectations for future civic and po-
litical engagement.
The limitations of our study follow. First, the data we used from ICCS
was collected across countries at the same point in time, while data from na-
tional election turnouts follow a country specific time track (i.e., column 3
76
asylum application rates (Figure 1) and the positive correlation between
young adults’ expected political participation and actual turnout (Figure
2 and Figure 3). A possible explanation for the relatively smaller correla-
tion is that the year in which national elections were held across the select-
ed countries varies. That is, the most proximate election to 2016 for three
countries was in 2015, possibly before the arrival of migrants into Europe;
while, for the other three countries the most proximate election to 2016
was in 2018 (two years after the arrival of migrants).
The black line presents the least-squares prediction line and the grey
shaded area shows a 95% confidence interval of the predicted values. The
biggest drop in voter turnout can be observed in Bulgaria, Italy and Slo-
venia where the difference in turnout between the two selected elections
was more than 10 percentage points. A positive trend in attending elec-
tions can be observed in Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Norway and Swe-
den, while the participation in elections did not change much during time
in Denmark and Malta. As expected, the estimated effect of asylum ap-
plication rates on the change in voter turnouts is not statistically signifi-
cant (p = 0.47).
Conclusions
Young adults play a crucial role in society as they represent the future so-
cial capital of a nation. This makes studying civic and political attitudes,
perceptions, and behaviour very relevant from an academic and policy
perspective. In this paper we have combined data from three data sourc-
es to study the relationship between changes in expected voting participa-
tion and recent immigration waves in Europe. We relied on data collect-
ed for ICCS study conducted in 2009 and 2016, a voter turnout database,
and country-level official statistics. We have found that the change in ex-
pected electoral participation of students is associated to the number of
asylum applications within a country. To gather some evidence that the
self-reported data from students reflect the society and societal changes
we examined the relationship between expected voting participation and
actual voter turnouts in the country. We have found a positive associa-
tion between these two variables. Our results point to the conclusion that
there is an association between the recent migration movements in Eu-
rope and the increased political participation in countries. This associa-
tion is reflected in students and their expectations for future civic and po-
litical engagement.
The limitations of our study follow. First, the data we used from ICCS
was collected across countries at the same point in time, while data from na-
tional election turnouts follow a country specific time track (i.e., column 3
76
