Page 69 - Šolsko polje, XXX, 2019, št. 5-6: Civic, citizenship and rhetorical education in a rapidly changing world, eds. Janja Žmavc and Plamen Mirazchiyski
P. 69
rožman, d. cortés ■ expected political participation and demogr aphic changes ...
(2019) report that across the Greek islands on the Aegean Sea, exposure to
migrant seeking asylum in Europe induced sizable and lasting increases
in locals’ hostility towards refugees, immigrants, and Muslim minorities.
They also find that exposure increases support for restrictive immigra-
tion and asylum policies, as well as political engagement to effect those ex-
clusionary policies. Similarly, Hangartner et al. (2019) show that the vote
share for the Greek Golden Dawn political party increased in communi-
ties exposed to this migration wave. Finally, Steinmayr (2016) documents
that the vote shares secured by right-wing political parties in the 2015 na-
tional election in Austria decreased in communities which hosted asylum
seekers in that same year.
Data
We relied on data from three different sources to investigate the associa-
tion between the recent arrival of migrants into Europe and the expect-
ed political participation of young adults. Firstly, we used data from EU
member countries participating in ICCS. ICCS is a cyclical internation-
al comparative large-scale assessment in education conducted by the IEA
in 2009 and 2016. Overall, 38 countries participated in the study in 2009,
while 24 did in 2016. We restricted our analysis for countries participat-
ing in both cycles of the study (i.e., 2009 and 2016). That is, we used data
from the following 12 countries: Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, It-
aly, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia and Swe-
den. We excluded data from Belgium, as only the Flanders region partic-
ipated in both cycles of ICCS and data from the other two sources is not
disaggregated in this regard. In all the countries included in our analysis,
the legal age of voting is 18 and voting is not compulsory.
The survey design of ICCS parallels the design of well-known large-
scale assessments in education (i.e., the Trends in Mathematics and Sci-
ence Study, the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study, and
the Programme in International Student Assessment). The target popu-
lation of the study is students in Grade 8. For each participating country,
a representative sample of schools and students is selected using a (strat-
ified) two-stage sampling design. At the first stage, schools are selected
independently across sampling strata with a probability proportional to
their size. Intact classrooms are then selected within sampled (and par-
ticipating) schools using a simple random sample (second stage). This im-
plies that selection probabilities of students vary across schools and strata,
which underlines the importance of using sampling weights in the analy-
sis to obtain unbiased population estimates (we discuss this further later
in the paper). In Table 1, we show school and student sample sizes for the
67
(2019) report that across the Greek islands on the Aegean Sea, exposure to
migrant seeking asylum in Europe induced sizable and lasting increases
in locals’ hostility towards refugees, immigrants, and Muslim minorities.
They also find that exposure increases support for restrictive immigra-
tion and asylum policies, as well as political engagement to effect those ex-
clusionary policies. Similarly, Hangartner et al. (2019) show that the vote
share for the Greek Golden Dawn political party increased in communi-
ties exposed to this migration wave. Finally, Steinmayr (2016) documents
that the vote shares secured by right-wing political parties in the 2015 na-
tional election in Austria decreased in communities which hosted asylum
seekers in that same year.
Data
We relied on data from three different sources to investigate the associa-
tion between the recent arrival of migrants into Europe and the expect-
ed political participation of young adults. Firstly, we used data from EU
member countries participating in ICCS. ICCS is a cyclical internation-
al comparative large-scale assessment in education conducted by the IEA
in 2009 and 2016. Overall, 38 countries participated in the study in 2009,
while 24 did in 2016. We restricted our analysis for countries participat-
ing in both cycles of the study (i.e., 2009 and 2016). That is, we used data
from the following 12 countries: Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, It-
aly, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia and Swe-
den. We excluded data from Belgium, as only the Flanders region partic-
ipated in both cycles of ICCS and data from the other two sources is not
disaggregated in this regard. In all the countries included in our analysis,
the legal age of voting is 18 and voting is not compulsory.
The survey design of ICCS parallels the design of well-known large-
scale assessments in education (i.e., the Trends in Mathematics and Sci-
ence Study, the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study, and
the Programme in International Student Assessment). The target popu-
lation of the study is students in Grade 8. For each participating country,
a representative sample of schools and students is selected using a (strat-
ified) two-stage sampling design. At the first stage, schools are selected
independently across sampling strata with a probability proportional to
their size. Intact classrooms are then selected within sampled (and par-
ticipating) schools using a simple random sample (second stage). This im-
plies that selection probabilities of students vary across schools and strata,
which underlines the importance of using sampling weights in the analy-
sis to obtain unbiased population estimates (we discuss this further later
in the paper). In Table 1, we show school and student sample sizes for the
67
