Page 77 - Šolsko polje, XXX, 2019, št. 5-6: Civic, citizenship and rhetorical education in a rapidly changing world, eds. Janja Žmavc and Plamen Mirazchiyski
P. 77
rožman, d. cortés ■ expected political participation and demogr aphic changes ...
Figure 4. Changes in turnouts and the asylum application rates.
ical participation and the grey shaded area represents the 95% confidence
interval of the predicted values. An increase of one percentage point in
the proportion of students that certainly expected to vote will be associat-
ed with an increase of about 0.9 percentage points in the actual turnout.
Contrary to 2009, the relationship is statistically significant (p = 0.03).
Overall, Figure 2 and Figure 3 suggest two important conclusions.
First, in line with previous research findings, we obtain systematic evi-
dence on the positive relationship between young adults’ expected polit-
ical participation and actual participation in a society. The second con-
clusion is that, among the countries under study, the relationship became
stronger in 2016. These two findings highlight the relevance of the posi-
tive association we found between the recent arrival of migrants into Eu-
rope and the expected political participation of young adults.
As a last result, in Figure 4 we show a visual representation of the re-
lationship between national asylum application rates and the change in
national voter turnout (i.e., column 7 minus column 4 in Table 2). On the
x-axis, we plot the national asylum application rate, while on the y-axis we
plot change in national voter turnout. This association suggests that coun-
tries with higher asylum application rates from 2014 to 2018 have, on av-
erage, a larger and positive change in the previous two national elections.
The correlation coefficient between these two variables is 0.24. This result
is of a smaller magnitude but in line with the positive and strong associ-
ation found between young adults’ expected political participation and
75
Figure 4. Changes in turnouts and the asylum application rates.
ical participation and the grey shaded area represents the 95% confidence
interval of the predicted values. An increase of one percentage point in
the proportion of students that certainly expected to vote will be associat-
ed with an increase of about 0.9 percentage points in the actual turnout.
Contrary to 2009, the relationship is statistically significant (p = 0.03).
Overall, Figure 2 and Figure 3 suggest two important conclusions.
First, in line with previous research findings, we obtain systematic evi-
dence on the positive relationship between young adults’ expected polit-
ical participation and actual participation in a society. The second con-
clusion is that, among the countries under study, the relationship became
stronger in 2016. These two findings highlight the relevance of the posi-
tive association we found between the recent arrival of migrants into Eu-
rope and the expected political participation of young adults.
As a last result, in Figure 4 we show a visual representation of the re-
lationship between national asylum application rates and the change in
national voter turnout (i.e., column 7 minus column 4 in Table 2). On the
x-axis, we plot the national asylum application rate, while on the y-axis we
plot change in national voter turnout. This association suggests that coun-
tries with higher asylum application rates from 2014 to 2018 have, on av-
erage, a larger and positive change in the previous two national elections.
The correlation coefficient between these two variables is 0.24. This result
is of a smaller magnitude but in line with the positive and strong associ-
ation found between young adults’ expected political participation and
75
