Page 67 - Šolsko polje, XXX, 2019, št. 5-6: Civic, citizenship and rhetorical education in a rapidly changing world, eds. Janja Žmavc and Plamen Mirazchiyski
P. 67
rožman, d. cortés ■ expected political participation and demogr aphic changes ...
The main objective of the paper is to investigate whether the re-
cent immigration-related demographic change in Europe can be associ-
ated with changes in expected political participation of young adults. For
this, we relied on three independent data sources from 12 EU-member
countries. To capture young adults’ expected political participation we re-
lied on data from the International Civic and Citizenship Study (ICCS),
a cyclical large-scale assessment in education implemented by the Inter-
national Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement
(IEA). In this paper, we used data collected for ICCS 2009 and 2016 in
each of the 12 selected countries. Moreover, we used data compiled by
Eurostat, which captures the number of asylum applications that were
lodged in each of the selected countries. Finally, we used data on nation-
al voter turnout as reported by the International Institute for Democra-
cy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA, https://www.idea.int/
data-tools/country-view/264/40).
We began our analysis by looking at the relationship between the
change in young adults’ expected political participation and the rate of
asylum application within a country. We observe changes between years
2009 and 2016 that should capture the changes related to the increased
migration into Europe starting in 2015. We found a positive correlation
between the change in the expected electoral participation and the na-
tional asylum application rates. A higher rate of asylum applications is as-
sociated with an increase of expected electoral participation in selected
European countries.
To complement this finding, we proceeded by investigating whether
expected political participation of young adults is associated with actual
voter turnouts in the country. We observed this relationship at two time
points, first around the year 2009 and second around the year 2016. We
found a positive relationship between the percentage of 8th graders that
certainly expect to vote in a country and the actual voter turnouts in both
time points. This suggests that a higher voter turnout is associated with
a larger proportion of students expecting to participate in national elec-
tions. This relationship is stronger in 2016 than in 2009. The result is in
line with previous research findings in the literature, which point at social
networks (i.e., family, school, and community) as determinant factors on
civic and political engagement.
The remaining sections of this paper are structured as follows. In the
next section, we review the academic literature pertinent to this research
study. In Section 3, we describe the data employed in our empirical analy-
sis. We continue by providing our results in Section 4. Finally, we present
our conclusions in Section 6.
65
The main objective of the paper is to investigate whether the re-
cent immigration-related demographic change in Europe can be associ-
ated with changes in expected political participation of young adults. For
this, we relied on three independent data sources from 12 EU-member
countries. To capture young adults’ expected political participation we re-
lied on data from the International Civic and Citizenship Study (ICCS),
a cyclical large-scale assessment in education implemented by the Inter-
national Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement
(IEA). In this paper, we used data collected for ICCS 2009 and 2016 in
each of the 12 selected countries. Moreover, we used data compiled by
Eurostat, which captures the number of asylum applications that were
lodged in each of the selected countries. Finally, we used data on nation-
al voter turnout as reported by the International Institute for Democra-
cy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA, https://www.idea.int/
data-tools/country-view/264/40).
We began our analysis by looking at the relationship between the
change in young adults’ expected political participation and the rate of
asylum application within a country. We observe changes between years
2009 and 2016 that should capture the changes related to the increased
migration into Europe starting in 2015. We found a positive correlation
between the change in the expected electoral participation and the na-
tional asylum application rates. A higher rate of asylum applications is as-
sociated with an increase of expected electoral participation in selected
European countries.
To complement this finding, we proceeded by investigating whether
expected political participation of young adults is associated with actual
voter turnouts in the country. We observed this relationship at two time
points, first around the year 2009 and second around the year 2016. We
found a positive relationship between the percentage of 8th graders that
certainly expect to vote in a country and the actual voter turnouts in both
time points. This suggests that a higher voter turnout is associated with
a larger proportion of students expecting to participate in national elec-
tions. This relationship is stronger in 2016 than in 2009. The result is in
line with previous research findings in the literature, which point at social
networks (i.e., family, school, and community) as determinant factors on
civic and political engagement.
The remaining sections of this paper are structured as follows. In the
next section, we review the academic literature pertinent to this research
study. In Section 3, we describe the data employed in our empirical analy-
sis. We continue by providing our results in Section 4. Finally, we present
our conclusions in Section 6.
65
