Page 187 - Štremfel, Urška, and Maša Vidmar (eds.). 2018. Early School Leaving: Contemporary European Perspectives. Ljubljana: Pedagoški inštitut.
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Contextualising Early School Leaving
with PISA Results

Mojca Štraus

Synopsis
Longitudinal studies of students which follow them from their initial
participation in the PISA study at age 15 clearly show that the strong-
est predictor of students’ early school leaving (ESL) is their achieve-
ment in the PISA test. This achievement is a significant predictor of
ESL, even after controlling for students’ SES. These data show that
strong competencies can help overcome the effects of disadvantages.

Summary
In the paper, a literature review is conducted on studies that have ad-
dressed the issue of early school leaving (ESL) by utilising the PISA
data and results. Students struggling with school are prone to ESL
and students showing low achievement at the end of compulsory ed-
ucation are especially at risk of ESL. The PISA data offer quality indi-
cators on student achievement together with indicators on the back-
ground characteristics of students and the schools in which they
learn, from which the risk factors of ESL are possibly identified.
Although the number of studies of ESL based on the PISA data found
in our literature search was not extensive, there was a pattern in their
findings. The key finding is that scores in the PISA achievement test
are shown to be the strongest predictor of ESL. The strength of this
factor remained significant even after controlling for SES, for which

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