Page 192 - Štremfel, Urška, and Maša Vidmar (eds.). 2018. Early School Leaving: Contemporary European Perspectives. Ljubljana: Pedagoški inštitut.
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ear ly school leaving: contempor ary european perspectives

these relationships are not deterministic; a substantial proportion of stu-
dents with PISA scores at or below Level 2 in fact successfully graduated,
while at the same time a notable proportion of students with PISA scores
at or above Level 3 had not graduated from high school by age 19. Similarly,
after adjusting for background factors, the OECD (2010) reported that stu-
dents in the bottom quartile of the PISA reading scores at age 15 were much
more likely to drop out of secondary school than those in the top quartile.

The results of the Canadian studies are in line with the results of the
mentioned Australian studies by showing that the strong association be-
tween reading proficiency and educational attainment still holds after ad-
justing for background factors, such as socio-economic and immigrant sta-
tus. In addition, another Canadian study by Murdoch, Kamanzi and Doray
(2011) further showed that PISA scores at age 15 together with social factors
more strongly impact access to this educational level than later persistence
in this education.

Along with the PISA score, studies have also investigated the effect of
other factors on ESL. Some effects of the socio-economic background hav-
ing a strong effect on ESL, but not stronger than PISA achievement, have
already been mentioned. Marks (2007) investigated the impact of attitu-
dinal variables on ESL and found that more positive attitudes to school
as well as attitudes to teachers reduced the odds of leaving school. In con-
trast, students’ evaluations of the disciplinary climate in their mathematics
classes revealed no impact on school leaving. The study also reported that
the inclusion of attitudinal variables had little impact on the effects of oth-
er variables. For the school-level measures available in PISA, Marks (2007)
found no associations with school leaving in Australia. The author con-
cluded that, consistent with the international literature, this indicates that
schools do not have a strong independent influence on school leaving. Yet
this is not to say that there are no schools with substantially higher or lower
levels of school leaving than expected given their students’ characteristics,
but only that there are few of such schools and they do not vary in identifi-
able, systematic ways from other schools (ibid.).

One other study in Europe addressed the issue of explicitly measured
ESL by utilising the PISA results. The importance of the PISA achieve-
ment for ESL, more specifically for the consequences of ESL, was found
by Alphen (2009). The study analysed EU Statistics on Income and Living
Conditions (EU-SILC) data for 2005 to 2007 in examining to what extent
compositional variation of ESLers can account for cross-national variation

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