Page 193 - Štremfel, Urška, and Maša Vidmar (eds.). 2018. Early School Leaving: Contemporary European Perspectives. Ljubljana: Pedagoški inštitut.
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contextualising ear ly school leaving with pisa r esults

of their income disadvantage relative to higher educated individuals in 21
EU countries. A country’s mean PISA achievement scores were used as one
of the indicators of the average quality of available educational resources,
together with educational expenditure. Findings showed that the income
disadvantage of ESLers is smaller in countries where the average quality
of available educational resources is higher. This means that a higher PISA
mean score in a country was found to be associated with smaller disadvan-
tages of ESL.

Studies utilising PISA data and intention to leave school
as a proxy for ESL
The studies described so far based their measure of ESL on explicit var-
iables directly indicating whether a student is an ESLer or not. Yet there
are other studies that employed other variables as an indication of ESL,
for example a student’s response as to whether they intend to leave school
early obtained from a specifically designed questionnaire. Studies measur-
ing the intention to leave school early were conducted in Ireland (Gillece,
Cosgrove, & Sofronuiou, 2010; JCES, 2010), Switzerland (Eicher, Staerkle,
& Clemence, 2014), Spain (Enguita, Martinez, & Gomez, 2010) and Italy
(Alverini & Lucidi, 2011). Notably, the results of the Swiss study that col-
lected data at different points in time in students’ educational pathways
showed that dropout intentions reliably predicted actual dropout 1 year lat-
er (Eicher, Staerkle, & Clemence, 2014). Some of these studies included the
PISA test score as a predictor of ESL while others only used the PISA stu-
dent background information, chiefly the PISA socio-economic and cul-
tural index, in investigations of the ESL risk factors. In the first set of stud-
ies, the PISA test score again proved to be an important predictor of ESL.
The studies and their findings are described in greater detail below.
Both studies for Ireland (Gillece, Cosgrove, & Sofronuiou, 2010; JCES,
2010) used PISA 2006 data and achievement in predictions of ESL, meas-
ured by an additional national variable indicating whether a student in-
tended to leave school early without completing Grade 12. The studies
aimed to identify the individual- and school-level characteristics for stu-
dents who intended to leave school early, yet by using different approach-
es. While the JCES (2010) study took the intention to leave school early as
an outcome variable, Gillece, Cosgrove and Sofronuiou (2010) used the in-
tention to leave school early as one of the predictors, among other student
background characteristics, of their achievement. The latter study found

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