Page 360 - Štremfel, Urška, and Maša Vidmar (eds.). 2018. Early School Leaving: Contemporary European Perspectives. Ljubljana: Pedagoški inštitut.
P. 360
ear ly school leaving: contempor ary european perspectives
costs of ESL at the national/EU level and/or financial gains expected from
reducing ESL at the national/EU level (Nevala & Hawley, 2011; European
Commission, n.d.).
The estimated costs of an ESLer per lifetime differ widely among the
EU member states and studies conducted. Brunello and De Paola (2014) re-
port they range from EUR 33,000 in Ireland to about GBP 56,000 in the
UK, from EUR 120,000 in Norway to EUR 157,000 in Estonia. Somewhat
different amounts are reported by the European Commission (n.d.), show-
ing that the lifetime costs of an ESLer range from EUR 100,000 through
EUR 200,000 up to EUR 1.1 million. A review of studies that estimated the
total cost of ESL and financial gains expected from reducing ESL in some
European countries is presented in Table 1.
Due to the different research methodologies used in estimating costs,
the range of costs included in the calculations, and differences in national
contexts in which studies have been conducted, it is very difficult to make
comparisons (Beirn, 1972; European Commission, 2013, n.d.; Van Alphen,
2009).
Among the various national studies, some studies also estimated the
costs of ESL for the EU economy as a whole. More than a decade ago, basing
the calculation on the assumption that ESLers have 6% lower productivi-
ty than qualified leavers, and using the 2005 figure of 23% unqualified leav-
ers, suggested that ESL causes the European economy a productivity loss of
1.4% (European Commission, 2006). The European Commission (n.d.), us-
ing Eurofound calculations, shows that the annual cost of NEETs to the 21
EU member states (DK, EL, FI, FR, MT, SE, CRO not involved) is approx-
imately EUR 100 billion (EUR 94 billion in foregone earnings and EUR 7
billion in excess transfers), which corresponds to 1% of their aggregated
GDP. Considering the Europe 2020 flagship initiative ‘An agenda for new
skills and jobs’, the European Commission (2011) estimates that “To reduce
the average European ESL rate by just 1 percentage point would provide the
European economy each year with nearly half a million additional quali-
fied potential young employees”. Reflecting the estimation that the share of
jobs available to low skilled people will drop in the near future from 20% to
less than 15%, it is predicted that the economic consequences of ESL in the
EU will become even worse. Despite numerous projections, the European
Commission (2013) argues that so far it has been difficult to accurately esti-
mate the costs of ESL at the EU level.
360
costs of ESL at the national/EU level and/or financial gains expected from
reducing ESL at the national/EU level (Nevala & Hawley, 2011; European
Commission, n.d.).
The estimated costs of an ESLer per lifetime differ widely among the
EU member states and studies conducted. Brunello and De Paola (2014) re-
port they range from EUR 33,000 in Ireland to about GBP 56,000 in the
UK, from EUR 120,000 in Norway to EUR 157,000 in Estonia. Somewhat
different amounts are reported by the European Commission (n.d.), show-
ing that the lifetime costs of an ESLer range from EUR 100,000 through
EUR 200,000 up to EUR 1.1 million. A review of studies that estimated the
total cost of ESL and financial gains expected from reducing ESL in some
European countries is presented in Table 1.
Due to the different research methodologies used in estimating costs,
the range of costs included in the calculations, and differences in national
contexts in which studies have been conducted, it is very difficult to make
comparisons (Beirn, 1972; European Commission, 2013, n.d.; Van Alphen,
2009).
Among the various national studies, some studies also estimated the
costs of ESL for the EU economy as a whole. More than a decade ago, basing
the calculation on the assumption that ESLers have 6% lower productivi-
ty than qualified leavers, and using the 2005 figure of 23% unqualified leav-
ers, suggested that ESL causes the European economy a productivity loss of
1.4% (European Commission, 2006). The European Commission (n.d.), us-
ing Eurofound calculations, shows that the annual cost of NEETs to the 21
EU member states (DK, EL, FI, FR, MT, SE, CRO not involved) is approx-
imately EUR 100 billion (EUR 94 billion in foregone earnings and EUR 7
billion in excess transfers), which corresponds to 1% of their aggregated
GDP. Considering the Europe 2020 flagship initiative ‘An agenda for new
skills and jobs’, the European Commission (2011) estimates that “To reduce
the average European ESL rate by just 1 percentage point would provide the
European economy each year with nearly half a million additional quali-
fied potential young employees”. Reflecting the estimation that the share of
jobs available to low skilled people will drop in the near future from 20% to
less than 15%, it is predicted that the economic consequences of ESL in the
EU will become even worse. Despite numerous projections, the European
Commission (2013) argues that so far it has been difficult to accurately esti-
mate the costs of ESL at the EU level.
360
